By N.S.Venkataraman

CHENNAI, Feb 21: The present disturbed condition in Maldives has made some people including opposition parties in Maldives say that India’s military intervention is necessary.

It is now becoming increasingly clear that Pakistan and it’s friend China think that war in one form or the other, in cold form or hot form, is desirable option for them in dealing with India and bringing it to it’s knees,

China and Pakistan would be too pleased ,if India would get into muddled water in Maldives by military intervention,  which may even end up just like what Rajiv Gandhi government did in Sri Lanka  by sending  Indian troops to fight the LTTE forces several years back, leaving the Indian forces in difficult situation.

India has to carefully weigh the situation in Maldives ,particularly considering the fact that China would escalate the crisis, if India would intervene militarily.

Maldives – An opportunity for China

The problem is that China has an un concealed ambition to dominate and over power the world economically or militarily or both.

It’s first target is to dominate far east and south east Asia  where it  seems to be already successful now  to some extent. Maldives is an attractive region for China in it’s ambitious target of dominating the nearby regions. It will not like to let go the present opportunity to entrench itself in Maldives further.

Nearby regions now feel threatened  by China :

China  forcefully occupied peaceful country Tibet more than six decades back  and drove out the venerable the Dalai Lama and his disciples mercilessly and China has not been challenged by any other country. The world conscience remained silent,  which only gave greater courage and confidence to China that might would always be right.

China has already brought Pakistan almost totally under it’s dominance and control  and  it appears now that Pakistan is only an extended territory of China.  China has invested huge money in Pakistan and has taken stranglehold over the infrastructure  projects and vital  economic entitities of Pakistan and there is no way that Pakistan can get rid of China in the foreseeable future.

By extending loan , grant to economically weak nearby countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka  and actively involving itself in participating in several projects in these countries as a dominant partner, China is well on it’s way to achieve it’s ambitious expansionist targets.  It is now making claims on India’s Arunachal Pradesh and is deliberately creating  conditions of war attrition in Doklan to subdue India in whatever way possible. It is also laying claims on South China Sea , Senkaku island  and others causing anxiety to nearby countries like Phillipines, Vietnam, Japan and others.

Given such scenario , India cannot remain unconcerned about the happenings in Maldives , where China will do everything possible to exploit the confused conditions in it’s favour and further tighten the control over the region.  China has already warned India that any military intervention by India in Maldives would be viewed by it seriously.

Difficult options for Mr. Modi :

Given the war like situation being created by Pakistan in Kashmir with obvious tacid encouragement from China and China;’s  blowing hot and cold policy against India , the question is whether India can afford to go for military intervention in Maldives,opening one more front.

Certainly, government of India would exercise great caution. In dealing with the Maldives situation.

Possibly, the one option for India is to use the recently formed axis of USA, Australia, Japan and India,to find a way out to ensure that the Maldives would not go  under China’s control and become a region of instability.. However, this axis still seems to be in formative stage and one cannot be sure whether this axis can be activated so soon.

Mr. Modi has difficult decisions to take and seems to have limited options.


N. S. Venkataraman is a trustee with the “Nandini Voice for the Deprived,” a not-for-profit organization that aims to highlight the problems of downtrodden and deprived people and support their cause. To promote probity and ethical values in private and public life and to deliberate on socio-economic issues in a dispassionate and objective manner.