Dams on the Tsangpo: A Geopolitical Gamble in a Fragile Land

By Khedroob Thondup

The Tibetan Plateau is often called the “Third Pole” for its vast reserves of freshwater locked in glaciers and rivers. Yet beneath this image of abundance lies a fragile geological reality: active fault lines, frequent earthquakes, and erosion‑prone soils. Building mega‑dams across the Yarlung Tsangpo River—China’s proposed hydropower projects—ignores this instability and risks cascading disasters far beyond Tibet’s borders.

The Geology That Cannot Be Ignored. Seismic volatility: The eastern Himalayas are among the world’s most earthquake‑prone regions. The Paizhen Fault runs directly beneath the proposed dam site, making structural collapse a real possibility. Mudslide risks: Seasonal monsoons saturate fragile soils, triggering landslides that can block reservoirs or cause overtopping. Unstable foundations: Fractured rock and weak cohesion reduce the bearing capacity of dam structures, undermining long‑term safety.

Policy Implications for South Asia. Transboundary security: The Tsangpo becomes the Brahmaputra as it enters India and Bangladesh. A dam failure upstream would unleash catastrophic flooding downstream, threatening millions of lives and livelihoods. Water sovereignty: By controlling the Tsangpo’s flow, Beijing gains leverage over South Asia’s water security. India and Bangladesh, already vulnerable to floods and droughts, face heightened dependence on Chinese decisions.
Regional instability: Hydropower ambitions in Tibet risk becoming flashpoints in Sino‑Indian relations, exacerbating mistrust along a contested border.

Conclusion: A Call for Restraint. The Tsangpo River is not merely a domestic resource—it is a transboundary lifeline. To build dams here is to gamble with geology and geopolitics alike. China’s hydropower ambitions must be tempered by scientific realities and regional responsibilities. For India and Bangladesh, the stakes are existential: their water security, agricultural stability, and disaster resilience hinge on decisions made upstream.

Policy restraint, regional dialogue, and respect for Tibet’s fragile terrain are not optional—they are imperative.

Khedroob Thondup is a former Tibetan diplomat and parliamentarian, and nephew of the 14th Dalai Lama. He is also the editor of the book: Dalai Lama, My Son and Tibet in Turmoil.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and should not be attributed to Tibet Express.